Psych! Rather than share the details of why it looks like we are not buying the house we made an offer on right this second (it’s a bit complex, and I don’t have the time right now) I thought I might share an my shoe analogy for the housing market, especially because it pretty accurately mirrors the situation.
Guys might not get this as much, because I might apply the fashion aspect of it, but you should in the respect that good shoes have value, and can be a very wise purchase to make.
For a while now, every time you see your friends, they suggest you buy a new pair of shoes. And so far, you have resisted. The pair you have now is still perfectly good, they will last a while. They are comfortable and a new pair can be painful to break in. Plus, good shoes are expensive, and you know that a new pair is just not in your budget.
Then one day, you look at your shoes, and you think - maybe I could use a new pair. These will last a while longer, maybe indefinitely, but shouldn’t you get a new pair BEFORE you need them? You know that shoes are expensive, especially if you want a good pair that will last. You check your bank account and your budget and decide that you can safely spend $100. Off to the shoe store you go.
You get there and wow, there sure are a lot of good looking shoes! You look around and you find a pair you REALLY like. They seem to be well made, and look like they are classic enough to sail through fashion trends for years to come. Then you look at the price. Jeebus H. Cripes on a crutch! You thought they would be in your price range, but they are actually $500! Whoops! You put the shoes down and keep looking. You go through this process several times, getting a little more frustrated each time. Things sure have changed since the last time you bought shoes! You had expected to pay a little more, but this is more than 5 times what you paid for your last pair.
You enlist the aid of a salesperson. They bring over about ten pairs of shoes. 4 pairs are REALLY ugly AND poorly made. A couple of pairs are okay, but they don’t come in quite your size. A few more pairs don’t even come close to your size. The salesperson opens the last box and! There they are! The perfect shoes! Oh, they are beautiful and stylish and well made, and GASP! They are Manolo Blaniks! What a find! And then you look at the price tag. Even though you told the sales person that you could afford $100, these shoes cost $700! You close the box and start looking at the others again.
You try on the ones that are really the wrong size just to make sure. Right. Not even close. Put those back for sure. You try on the ones that are a little too small. You squeeze them on. Whew. They ARE uncomfortable, aren’t they? But….won’t they stretch? Maybe you could get some of those shoe stretching things…. Hmmm… You look at the price tags. One pair is still way too expensive, even if they are nice, so you set aside the other pair, even if they are too small and a little more than you wanted to spend.
You start looking at the poor, ugly shoes to see if maybe you judged them too quickly. All of them are in your price range, but wow, 1 pair is REALLY ugly, and only half-way decently constructed. A couple others are better looking, but REALLY shoddy. The last pair is, whoops, again a little out of your price range, and a little small, but the best looking pair.
Unbelievable. There isn’t a single pair that is really right for you. You look them over again. Now you’re down to a pair that is a little expensive, but a little too small. A pair that are not as nice, not as cute, a little small, but a little more affordable, although still more than you were supposed to spend.
And then there are those Manolos….But they are way too expensive. But they are amazing and fit like a glove. You could wear these shoes for…the rest of your LIFE, if you took care of them. Hmmmm, maybe that $700 is worth it. No, no, you should be practical. You don’t have $700!
You look at the other pairs. You squeeze them on. One pair hurts a little less than the others. You ask the sales person to check the price, or maybe there is something similar on sale? He comes back and tells, you that the price on one is correct, but the more expensive pair is on sale! How much off? TEN WHOLE DOLLARS!!!!! That will make them only $40 more than you wanted to spend! What a deal!
He slithers up next to you and says quietly, Why don’t you just put your Manolos on your credit card?
OMG, why didn’t you think of that? You could do that! You call the bank and find out that you don’t have enough credit left for the shoes. What if you paid $100 in cash, and put the rest on the card…? No, still not enough when you figure in the tax. The sales person tell you that these shoes are the hottest thing around, and then, again quietly, that this may be your last chance to buy them at this price because he heard that the price might be going up! Wait, you say…don’t the prices of things usually go DOWN after a while? Oh no, not anymore he says. There are only so many pairs of good shoes out there, you may never find another pair like this again.
What do you do? Spend the extra cash on the Manolos because they ARE great and they WILL last?
Or spend a lot less on a pair that is a little small but might work? That one pair IS $10 off….
I can only tell you what I did. I walked away. It may have made some people a little upset. Everyone spent some time, and no one made any money. But I couldn’t let myself spend more than I could afford. Couldn’t you pay a little more? It’s not really that much extra. It doesn’t matter. That is what is wrong with everything these day. Everyone pays just a little more than they can afford, and a little more, and then oh hell, I’m so far over my head already, I’m just gonna go for the gold. What’s a little extra debt every month?
A pair of shoes may very well be worth $700, but that doesn’t mean I can afford them.
Another pair of shoes may be too small, kind of ugly and only okay construction, but why pay everything I have for them when they won’t really work as well as I need them too?
Another pair of shoes may be worth $150 (or $140), but especially when they are still too small (even if they are pretty cute) should I really buy them? Maybe if I wait, I will find another pair of shoes that suits me better for the same amount. Maybe a nicer pair WILL go on sale. Or maybe they will all go up in price exponentially. I don’t know. All I know is that I can’t afford any of those pairs of shoes, especially since the pair I have now really will continue to work for a while longer.